Since football embraced advanced analytics, expected goals and expected defensive value (xGA) have become essential metrics in evaluating team performance. According to Crickex Login analysts, a recent study of clubs with an expected goals against (xGA) under 10 revealed a surprising omission: Manchester City, the reigning Champions League holders and Premier League powerhouse, were not on the list.
Last season, City ranked among Europe’s elite in xGA, and with the addition of Josko Gvardiol this year, many expected their defense—anchored by Rúben Dias, Nathan Aké, Manuel Akanji, and John Stones—to grow even stronger. Yet Crickex Login observers have noticed a noticeable drop in City’s defensive performance. This decline may be linked to Kevin De Bruyne’s long-term injury and Rodri’s fitness setbacks. Without their midfield engine, City have often had to rely on Bernardo Silva dropping deep, which has affected their defensive shape.
Expected goals against measures the quality of chances allowed, not actual goals conceded. For example, Inter Milan’s Federico Dimarco once scored from a 56-meter lob—an extraordinary goal, yet it only carried an xG value of 0.01. In City’s case, the dip in rankings suggests they are giving opponents too many high-quality chances, regardless of the actual goals conceded.
By contrast, Arsenal—last season’s title challengers—ranked fifth among the eight best defenses, thanks to a mostly healthy backline. Their previous campaign crumbled largely due to the injury to center-back William Saliba. The Gunners still lack the squad depth to absorb key injuries. Elsewhere, Ligue 1 side Nice, despite conceding the fewest goals in Europe’s top five leagues, only rank fourth in xGA. Surprisingly, struggling Marseille ranks even higher, possibly reflecting coach Gennaro Gattuso’s tactical emphasis on defense amid a sputtering attack.
Leading the rankings are Bayern Munich and Inter Milan. After signing Kim Min-jae, Bayern’s trio of Kim, Upamecano, and De Ligt now rivals any backline in Europe. Compared to them, only Rúben Dias stands tall on City’s end—while new signing Gvardiol, though talented, still lacks elite-level experience. Inter’s success is also no fluke. They reached last year’s Champions League final with a back three of Acerbi, Bastoni, and Darmian. This season, they’ve added Benjamin Pavard, rediscovered Stefan de Vrij’s best form, and brought in Yann Sommer from Bayern—a perfect shot-stopper for their system. With eight clean sheets already, Inter’s cohesion makes them a legitimate defensive force, even if they lack Bayern’s star power.
By current metrics, Bayern and Inter appear best positioned to lift the Champions League trophy. Still, with two-thirds of the season left to play, Crickex Login experts caution that anything can happen. The most beautiful moments aren’t always at the finish line—but along the journey. And as Manchester City recover their midfield core, there’s no doubt the reigning champions will reignite their title charge. Their hunger for silverware burns as strong as ever.